A recent study of the veterinary labor market, published in the Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association (JAVMA), projects the current educational system will sufficiently meet U.S. veterinary service demand for the next decade, assuming no significant disruptions. “The data do not support an expectation of a continued shortage in the U.S. veterinarian labor markets, as suggested in previous studies,” according to John Volk of Brakke Consulting, the study’s corresponding author. The study, commissioned by the American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA), anticipates steady, parallel growth in supply and demand for veterinary services. This challenges earlier forecasts of persistent workforce shortages following the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. “The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic spurred rapid shifts in the US economy and veterinary services sector,” Volk says. “Consumer disposable income increased, and spending on pet-related goods and services increased rapidly with lockdowns and work from home. The rapid increase in demand raised concerns of persistent shortages of companion animal veterinarians.” The study refined 10-year veterinary market projections using enhanced data, prior studies, expert interviews, and predictive models through the next decade. “Further, because supply and demand constantly seek equilibrium, it is inappropriate to predict a severe shortage or surplus well into the future in the absence of a major disruption that would throw supply and demand out of balance, and no such potential disruption has been identified. Rather, price/wage shifts help demand and supply constantly adjust. Tight labor markets (‘shortages’) and soft labor markets (’surpluses’) tend to be short-lived, no more than two or three years,” Volk adds. The study predicts modest growth in pet-owning households and veterinary spending, with demand influenced by disposable income. It highlights potential efficiency gains through greater use of veterinary technicians and advancements in technology, including AI, digital tools, and improved medical instruments. For more information, visit the AVMA Publications website.
